England and Scotland — Whither Now?
Drawing conclusions from the data and using what you know is the key to Data Science.
It’s Town versus Gown | U versus non-U in the U.S. and U.K. elections.
I’m referring here to the similarities between the Gibson’s Bakery versus Oberlin College case and the U.K election. It’s interesting how the U.S. and U.K. culture and elections are mirrors of one another. But on to the U.K.
Looking at votes in England versus Scotland, I have to say that I do think the U.K. will break into two pieces.
England is dominated by Leave, and Scotland by Remain. Labour is no longer a large factor in England outside of a few large cities, particularly London. And the Scottish have consistently preferred socialist policies that the Conservatives and Labour (partly) rejected.
Scotland and Boris Johnson’s mutual antipathy have left the Conservatives all but shut out of Scotland. The change in vote totals show how much ground the Labor party lost in this election, so it isn’t just the Conservatives who are in trouble in Scotland. It is this trend towards the SNP that leads me to believe Scotland will break away from the United Kingdom after the election in 2021.
In England, the proportion of Labour’s vote — 32.1% — does not tell the whole story. Concentration of the vote is important. The Labour party was never enthusiastic about the EU experiment since it started in the 1970’s. Scotland is an enthusiastic backer of Remain. Labour didn’t campaign to Remain in the Brexit vote because many of their voters outside of Scotland wanted to Leave. The only segment of the Labour party in England that wanted to Remain were the college-educated voters, particularly around London and the cities, and Labour MPs. These are the groups that have most benefited from a high level of immigration and globalization, in contrast to the traditional Labour voter.
And Labour lost in constituencies that were strong Remain, as well as Leave. Additionally, they lost votes in London. Taking a look at the constituencies as equal size hexagons — which which visually removes the size effect, shows conservative vote totals, with a circle around the London area
In the 2017 election, Labour picked up voters. But that just exacerbated the long-term trend: Labour is a party that neglected and disdained their traditional working-class voters. And the problem is the working-class Labour voters know it. That’s part of the reason they voted Leave in the first place. A boot in the face trumps (sic) economics, especially since governments world-wide not coping well with an explosion of child pornography.
Boris Johnson’s strong support for the NHS was another key factor in wooing the Labour working-class vote. This is not a traditional Conservative pitch to voters, and it worked for the working and middle class. Boris Johnson and Leave now have to deliver the promised reduction in regulation and economic growth, and reform and reallocation of spending on the NHS they said would be the result of Brexit.
Another factor was obviously Jeremy Corbyn himself, along with his policy of replaying the years of government ownership of the means of production. Voters remember the working-class strikes and economic stagnation of the 1970’s and don’t want to see it repeated.
Now we shall see if Boris Johnson uses the U.K.’s soon to be returned fishing rights and trade deficit with the Continent to get a better deal on Brexit. Germany, in particular, has to be a bit nervous about the prospect of their goods looking more expensive post-Brexit due to tariffs.
Found today in the Washington Post, but you heard it here first!
This principle, more than Brexit, defines why Johnson’s Tories won seats in places the Labour Party has dominated for decades (in some cases, for more than a century). Working-class men and women could see that, like them, Johnson was an outsider despised by the London elites. They could see he had the courage to take on those elites, including the ones inside his own party. Just as working-class Democrats cast off 40 years of heritage to vote in 1980 for another outsider belittled by elites, so working-class Britons turned to Johnson, the only party leader who saw them as equals. The result: Johnson’s Conservatives beat Labour among the rich, middle class and poor on Thursday, something they have never done before. (emphasis added)
Will elites in the U.S. and U.K. learn from this? Will the Davos globalization-at-all-costs crowd learn anything?
Labour MP’s, dating back to the Blair premiership, wanted the spigot opened on immigration to replace the working-class voters they increasingly disdained with a more reliable group. That strategy relied on the U.K. staying in the EU. It won’t work now. So Labour’s future is a smaller proportion of the vote in England and Scotland, at least until the dust settles.
Momentum, along with Corbyn and others, have pulled the Labour Party further left. Additionally, the younger rank and file of the party are further left than a majority of Labour’s voters. This also limits Labour’s appeal.
Contrary to popular belief, Boris Johnson is not Donald Trump. Johnson is a much more gifted politician and less abrasive. As Andrew Sullivan points out in his excellent article, Johnson knows how to take risks that Theresa May would not and could not take, and they have paid off. Johnson has the imagination, drive, and wit that Theresa May does not have. He took the risk to purge rebellious MP’s from his own party, and thereby tightened up and focused his message. This is exactly what Leave voters and those a bit on the fence wanted to hear — a tight and focused message.
The election was consistent with trends since 1974. And left-of-center parties are collapsing in the Anglo-sphere. So the shock and anger displayed in London the day after the election shows how insular and provincial the townies can be. Self-interest dominates the common interest, and politics falls apart.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
The author is the co-founder of a startup in Peachtree Corners, GA.
